Transformation of integration processes amid the deglobalisation of the world economy

Introduction. This article investigates the transformation of integration processes in the global economy under the influence of intensifying deglobalisation trends. The relevance of the topic stems from a fundamental shift in the global economic landscape, where the epoch of hyper-globalisation has given way to a phase of protectionism, geopolitical fragmentation, and a crisis of multilateral institutions. The aim of the work is to identify the key directions of the structural reorganisation of the system of international economic relations. To achieve this aim, the article addresses the following tasks: a theoretical interpretation of the phenomenon of deglobalisation as a structural trend at the current stage of world economic development; an analysis of the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators (global GDP growth rates, the share of exports of goods and services in GDP, the volume and structure of transboundary capital flows); an examination of changes in the system of regional trade and investment agreements; the identification of patterns in the transformation of global value chains; and an assessment of the consequences of deglobalisation for the prospects of sustainable development.

Materials and methods. The methodological framework of the study comprises a range of general scientific and specialised methods, including a systems approach, comparative and statistical analysis, time-series analysis, and index assessment methods. The empirical basis is formed by statistical data and analytical materials from international organisations (IMF, WTO, UNCTAD, the World Bank), as well as research findings from leading academic centres. Methods of economic-statistical analysis, comparative analysis, systems approach, and graphical data interpretation for visualising long-term trends were employed for information processing.

Results of the study. The analysis establishes that the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 served as a turning point, after which globalisation processes were supplanted by a sustained trend towards deglobalisation. This is corroborated by a slowdown in global GDP growth to 3.2% in 2025, a reduction in the ratio of exports of goods and services to GDP to 56.6% in 2024, and a fundamental reconfiguration of capital flows. A sharp decline in the number of new regional trade agreements (to 2 in 2025) and international investment agreements was identified, indicating a shift from the extensive expansion of integration alliances towards their strategic consolidation and regionalisation. It was established that deglobalisation processes are accompanied by heightened economic and trade policy uncertainty, which reached historical highs in 2024–2025, as well as the progressive fragmentation of global value chains.

Discussion and conclusion. The conducted research allows for the conclusion that deglobalisation represents a sustained structural trend characterised by a systemic slowdown of integration processes, increased protectionism, and the regionalisation of economic ties. This process has a dual nature: on one hand, it creates instrumental opportunities for strengthening national economies and developing strategically significant sectors; on the other hand, it generates systemic risks associated with the fragmentation of the global economic space, reduced efficiency in resource allocation, and the undermining of the foundations of multilateral cooperation. A key manifestation of the current stage is the transformation of the integration model from universal liberalisation towards the formation of resilient regional blocs, which act as natural 'havens of safety' for their members amidst escalating geopolitical turbulence.

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